Coming off the Philadelphia Phillies climb back to .500 it’s time to take a look at what the true ceiling is for the team for the rest of the season. I’m comparing the Phillies against 4 other teams; the St. Louis Cardinals, the Atlanta Braves & the Washington Nationals. I chose the Cardinals because they’re the best team in the NL. The Braves & Nationals for obvious reasons.
I’ll be comparing the teams with two different formulas; the pythagorean winning percentage (which you can find out more about at this link) and the players WAR (which you can also find out more about at this link.)
Pythagorean Winning Percentage
The basis of this is how lucky the team is currently. With it being based upon the amount of runs scored by the team against the amount of runs scored against the team it shows how lucky (or unlucky) they have to been at this point in the season.
St. Louis Cardinals: 38-21 (should be 38-21) Projected Final Record: 104-58
The Cardinals are right where they’re supposed to be as they’ve scored 283 runs compared to allowing 201.
Philadelphia Phillies: 30-30 (should be 26-34) Projected Final Record: 70-92
The Phillies are getting very lucky right now as they’ve scored 222 runs and given up 257. To be a true .500 team the run differential should be within 5 runs going either way.
Atlanta Braves: 37-22 (should be 37-22) Projected Final Record: 101-61
The Braves are right where they’re supposed to be as they’ve scored 267 runs compared to allowing 203.
Washington Nationals: 29-30 (should be 25-34) Projected Final Record: 68-94
The Nationals are in a similar position to the Phillies but in somehow worse shape. The Nationals have scored 201 runs as compared to given up 235.
Now that you see what the 4 teams are doing, should be doing, and projected to be doing here’s where the main differences lie. The Cardinals & Braves are scoring more runs than allowing which obviously means their ceiling is much higher. A regression to the mean may come but the Phillies & Nationals are playing above their heads right now. Injuries have hurt both the Phillies & Nationals but the alarming thing to worry about for the Phillies is the 257 runs allowed. They’re 35 runs apart in that category and that number is a little bigger than it should be with the amount of games they’ve played the Marlins. The Nationals have a smaller run differential of only 34 runs but they’ve scored 21 less runs. The inability of the Nationals to score is hurting the team more than anything. The Phillies inability to stop teams from scoring is hurting them more than anything.
Now onto the main differences in the team and that’s the players. What players are over performing and should regress to the mean? What players are under performing and holding the team back? Are there players under performing that can get back to their career stats and boost the team or are they finished as productive players?
Cardinals Player Over Performing The Most: Matt Carpenter (3.0 WAR)
Carpenter has played 39 games at second base; 28 at third base along with two in right field and one at first base. This is Carpenter’s third year in the league and in his previous two seasons he was a -0.2 & 1.1. Is it likely Carpenter will regress back closer to the 1.1 then stay at the 3.0? Yes. The other teams second base issue is in flux with injuries and sub-par seasons. Dan Uggla is at a -0.6 and second lowest on the team against B.J. Upton. Uggla has regressed a lot in the last couple of years and this isn’t surprising in the least. He’s leading the league in strike outs right now with 73 and is under 0 WAR for the first time in his career. A move upward is not expected for Uggla. Danny Espinosa has a similar issue right now as he’s at -0.7 and is the second lowest on HIS team next to pinch hitter Tyler Moore. Espinosa the last two seasons has had a 2.8 & a 2.6 so he’s more likely to finish above the line and closer to a 2 then where he is now. A bright spot for the Phillies early in the season was the re-emergence of Chase Utley before he was injured. Utley is second on the team with a 1.5 WAR and should be well on his way to matching last season’s 3.0 if he is able to come back healthy.
Cardinals Player Under Performing The Most: Matt Holliday (-0.1 WAR)
Holliday has seen a dramatic collapse in WAR with being under 0 for the first time in his career. Holliday last year was a 4.0 player and is now seeing struggles he has not seen before. The left fielder is suffering from career lows in Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage. Is it likely he will retain some of his form? Yes but his days of being a 4.0 player look long past him. Left field for the three other teams compared to Holliday has been a bit of a bright spot. Justin Upton has cooled a bit after his hot start for the Braves but is still sporting a 1.6 WAR. Last season he was a 2.3 and there’s not much evidence saying he will not at least achieve that if not pass it. The Nationals until recently featured Bryce Harper in left field and when he wasn’t running into walls he was having quite a fine season. Harper is leading the team with a 1.9 WAR and when he returns he should be back on track to come somewhat close to his 5.2 from last year. Obviously the diamond in the rough this season for the Phillies has been Domonic Brown. Brown is leading the National League in home runs and leading the Phillies in WAR. He’s never had a WAR above -0.2 in a season but he’s already at his career high in games played in the majors & at-bats. Brown may end up at the end of the season around a 4.0 player which the Phillies should be thrilled with.
Cardinals Player Under Performing but Still Productive: David Freese (0.1 WAR)
Freese is coming off a heroic postseason after having a career high in home runs and RBIs but has struggled so far this season. Freese has battled injuries as evidenced by Matt Carpenter playing some games at third. Freese is likely to start finding his path and moving back towards at least the 1.8 he had in 2011. The issue for the other 3 teams are what they currently have at third base. For the Braves Chris Johnson is at a 0.6 which is a career high for him. Regression will come to him. Ryan Zimmerman has missed some time due to injury and an issue with throwing but is at a 0.8; the lowest since his rookie season of a 0.6. Can Zimmerman battle from the injury to return to form? Possibly but a return to his career high 7.3 in 2009 is very unlikely. The Phillies are battling similar issues at third with Michael Young. Young started hot but has cooled off as a late. Young is second lowest on the team in WAR with a 0.5 (Delmon Young is the only batter below him) and it’s safe to say his -2.0 last season may not be far away.
Cardinals Pitcher Over Performing The Most: Shelby Miller (3.0 WAR)
The 22-year-old rookie sensation is no surprise to be leading this category as he’s only 12 starts into his Major League career and has an outstanding 1.82 ERA as of today. Young arms tend to wear down and regress during a season so Miller should be coming back to earth sooner then later.
Cardinals Pitcher Under Performing The Most: Mitchell Boggs (-1.2 WAR)
It is unfair to use someone currently in Memphis but Boggs has regressed in a quick amount of time. He went from being a very dominant late inning reliever last season and falling apart against the Giants in the playoffs has started him off rough this year. A 11.05 ERA and a inflated walk rate (9.2 BB/9) means when Boggs gets his stuff together in Memphis and comes back to the team he will move towards the 0.7 WAR he has averaged in his career.
Cardinals Pitcher Under Performing but Still Productive: None
The Cardinals main difference between these 3 other teams is their pitching staff really is not that bad. The total 13.1 WAR for the rotation & bullpen is higher then the offense and they’re all really good pitchers. That’s why they’re the best team in the National League right now.
Braves Player Over Performing The Most: Evan Gattis (2.0 WAR)
A true life platoon player Gattis has started in the outfield & catcher for the team and continues to out hit his worth. In his first 47 Major League games he’s hit 13 home runs and knocked in 33 RBIs. Regression is coming hard for this man. Yadier Molina for the Cardinals is at a 1.9 WAR and should finish better than Gattis. Kurt Suzuki for the Nationals is at a 0.4 and won’t go much higher or lower than that. Erik Kratz has played well in place of Carlos Ruiz with a 0.1 WAR while Ruiz is at a -0.2 WAR. Ruiz should be able to climb back to above Kratz and closer to the at least 2.0 he has been the last 7 years when he returns from injury.
Braves Player Under Performing The Most: B.J. Upton (-0.7 WAR)
It’s obvious this category was going to right now the worse Upton brother. Upton’s bat has been a hole in center field as he’s batting under .200 with 6 Home Runs & 12 RBI’s. Jon Jay is at a 0.1 WAR in center for the Cardinals and has never been before a 0.9 so Jay should come back to that. Denard Span has played center for the Nationals well with a 0.3 and should bring himself back up to at least a 2.0 like his average has been in the last couple of years. Ben Revere has come to the Phillies and has frustrated fans with his double play ground outs and lapses in the outfield. He’s also at a 0.4 WAR and in a lot better shape than Upton.
Braves Player Under Performing but Still Productive: Jason Heyward (0.0 WAR)
Heyward battled through a sophomore slump and injuries last season so it was very hard for him to match his extraordinary rookie season (6.4) but had a great junior season with a 5.3. Now in his senior season he’s struggled being just the same as an average replacement player. Heyward is also under the Mendoza line but is more likely to turn it around than Upton. Carlos Beltran for the Cardinals continues to be excellent for the team with a 1.4 WAR and will likely close out the season somewhere near the 3.8 he had last year. Jayson Werth returned from injury for the Nationals and is even on the season 0.0. I don’t expect that to move since I expect Werth to stay injured off and on this season. Even with John Mayberry‘s heroics last night he still is at a -0.1 WAR and with Delmon Young at a -0.7 the right field position for Philadelphia has been a black hole.
Braves Pitcher Over Performing The Most: Julio Teheran (1.6 WAR)
Another young pitcher who is well over achieving is Julio Teheran His season is off to a great start but he’s due for regression as the season moves along.
Braves Pitcher Under Performing The Most: Tim Hudson (0.0 WAR)
Hudson is making $9,000,000 this year and is 4-4 with a 4.80 ERA this season. His ERA is the highest since 2006…his second season in Atlanta. For what he’s doing and only to be at a 0.0 WAR (previous career low is 0.9) means even at his age he should at least get closer to a 1 WAR than staying at 0.
Braves Pitcher Under Performing but Still Productive: Jordan Walden (0.1 WAR)
Walden hasn’t shown the brilliance expected of him in his short career but he has yet to give up a home run in his 18 games of work so that counts for something.
Nationals Player Over Performing The Most: None
Another huge issue for the Nationals has been the lack of hitting and no one really playing out of their minds. They’re all falling in where they should be or worse. There’s only one player worth more than 1 win above replacement and that’s Bryce Harper.
Nationals Player Under Performing The Most: Jayson Werth (0.0 WAR)
As covered above Werth is just not doing anything to earn his $16 million dollar salary this season and doesn’t look like that will change.
Nationals Player Under Performing but Still Productive: None
Still nothing positive to report on the Nationals offensive front…
Nationals Pitcher Over Performing The Most: None
Once again no pitcher is really standing out or playing out of his talent level. Everyone is either where they should be or…
Nationals Pitcher Under Performing The Most: Dan Haren (-1.0 WAR)
Not terribly surprising but Haren last year recorded his career low in WAR at -0.4 and so far this season he’s done nothing to turn it around. He’s 4-7 with a career high 5.45 ERA. He’s slowly becoming a 5th pitcher and making $13 million that’s quite an expensive investment.
Nationals Pitcher Under Performing but Still Productive: Rafael Soriano (0.2 WAR)
The Nationals new closer has closed 15 games (more than half of the games they’ve won) but has pitched very unlike himself. His strikeouts per innings is down (6.7) and hits per innings is up (7.8). Soriano can bring it around in the summer for the team but they might have issues getting him the ball late in the game with a lead.
Now onto the Phillies.
Phillies Player Over Performing The Most: Domonic Brown (1.9 WAR)
Seriously you didn’t expect anyone else to be here right? Brown has been on a tear and it’s a mystery to see if he can keep it up during the season. He is due for regression sooner then later so don’t be surprised when it rears it’s ugly head.
Phillies Player Under Performing The Most: Ryan Howard (-0.1 WAR)
Also not a surprise. Howard is at a -0.1 WAR and is well on the pace to beat his -1.1 WAR last season. Howard’s injuries don’t seem to be fully healed as he’s had problems running and pushing off his legs. Howard has 7 home runs which ties him with Erik Kratz and Chase Utley…both you could consider part time players this season between injuries. First base for the other teams is a mixed bag. Allen Craig is at the same point of Ryan Howard in WAR (-0.1) and is struggling. Freddie Freeman is at a 1.0 WAR and moving up. Adam LaRoche stayed in Washington and is at a 0.5.
Phillies Player Under Performing but Still Productive: Michael Young (-0.4 WAR)
With all his struggles and slumps Young still is an improvement over Placido Polanco. He may find his job threatened as the season moves on as Freddy Galvis (0.5) and Kevin Frandsen (0.3) look to be more of the Phillies future then Young.
Phillies Pitcher Over Performing The Most: Jonathan Pettibone (1.1 WAR)
Of course this is going to be a young pitcher. Pettibone has pitched very good but eventually he will come back down to earth. Kyle Kendrick is a candidate here but I feel Pettibone will regress quicker then Kendrick.
Phillies Pitcher Under Performing The Most: Roy Halladay (-1.1 WAR)
I know it’s not nice to pick on the injured guy but Halladay has performed the worse for the Phillies this season (even worse then Chad Durbin somehow) and if he had just told Phillies trainers the discomfort he felt against Pittsburgh he would be able to return a lot sooner then projected.
Phillies Pitcher Under Performing but Still Productive: Mike Adams (0.3 WAR)
Adams has battled an injured back but has been up and down in the late innings for the Phillies. Sometimes he looks like gold and sometimes he looks awful. I still would rather have him in the 8th inning spot over Antonio Bastardo.
The Phillies are well behind the Braves & Cardinals but pretty equal to the Nationals. The injuries of the two battered teams (Phillies & Nationals) will determine how serious they can get into a pennant race. By the end of June it shouldn’t be a surprise however to see both teams fighting for .500.
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